Forex MegaDroid Performance: 2 Weeks

FX Robot Man Readers!

I am pretty excited to write up a quick little note about how Forex MegaDroid has been performing since I got my hands on it. If you haven’t already done so, you might want to quickly read my initial review of MegaDroid here and perhaps my initial back testing results here.

In my initial review I said that if the MegaDroid did not give a return of at least 10% within 60 days I would be asking for my money back. Although two weeks is probably not enough to form a definitive conclusion, I am so far very impressed with the performance of the system.

Risking 10% per trade (which seems high to most, but with 90% wins it actually is quite comfortable) the Forex MegaDroid has returned 14% in two weeks on my IBFX demo account and I have seen similar results on my live money at IBFX as well. Considering that my own personal trading plan is to earn 10% per month, earning 14% in two weeks is outstanding for me.

Because of how consistent MegaDroid has been I will be upping the risk to 20% per trade starting this week.

You can follow my public MegaDroid demo account statement here:

Non-Standard Settings

Based on the discussion comments on the other posts, I think many of you reading this may not be experiencing the same exact trades and success that I am with Forex MegaDroid. Based on the default settings, with 10% risk there should have been roughly 6-7 trades for a net return of 5% over the last two weeks with most of those trades happening in the first week.

I have setup MegaDroid to trade in a slightly different way than the setup in the MegaDroid manual. I still use 10% risk per trade, but the result is that I get about twice as many trades, for 14% return over the last two weeks.

So, what am I doing differently? I have been thinking about whether or not to reveal my setup (it really is just one simple change) on this blog. The problem is that I don’t want to recommend something that is different than the recommended setup when it really hasn’t been tested for very long,

However, as a special “Thank You” to those of you who have purchased MegaDroid from through my website I have a gift for you: In the next day or two I will be typing up a special “Thank You” report detailing exactly how I am trading MegaDroid and I will email these details directly to each of the individuals who have purchased MegaDroid using the affiliate links on my website. This is just my way of saying thank you for supporting FX Robot Man – your support helps to pay for hosting, SEO, testing and analysis tools etc. As soon as I raise enough money, I will also be launching a discussion forum for FX Robot Man as well.

Some Negatives

Based on the types of comments I have been seeing about MegaDroid, the system appears to slightly buggy. It is constantly giving people various licensing and trade execution errors, and I am not sure how helpful or responsive their support team has been either. I personally haven’t had to use support myself, and MegaDroid has been working out of the box for me (with the exception of the GmtOffset which still is annoying).

MegaDroid has announced an updated version however, and hopefully this will correct some these issues.

Despite the annoying marketing hype of the sales page I am quite happy with the MegaDroid as a system, and still feel comfortable recommending it. If you were trying to decide between MegaDroid or FAP Turbo, I would absolutely recommend that you go with MegaDroid. It has great performance without the broker issues that have arisen for FAP Turbo.

Until next time, best of luck with your trading!

-Ben aka FX Robot Man

Forex MegaDroid Backtest

I have only had my hands on the Forex MegaDroid EA for about 36 hours at this point, but it has given me some time to run some back testing, and I wanted to share some of my findings with you. Aside from whether or not you believe back testing or demo testing is even a legitimate practice to begin with, at this point it is all we have for MegaDroid.

If any of you have tried to do any back testing on MegaDroid you a probably running into the same problems I have had – which is getting the GMT Offset setting to work with your historical data. Forex MegaDroid automatically calculates the correct value for this setting in Live Trading, but because of daylight savings time changes, and differences between broker platforms and data banks, back testing is a real pain in the tuckus to say the least. I found that for the FXDD demo terminal I have on my laptop, using a GMT Offset of 2 seemed to work the best for me in testing (even the current setting is 3 for forward testing).

The other problem you will might have when testing over multiple years, and this would be a good problem to have in live trading, is that most brokers limit the size of each order to 50 lots. One of MegaDroids cool features is that it leverages the fact that it never has more than 1 or 2 bad trades in a row, and can have up to 70 consecutive winning trades. So, whenever MegaDroid takes a loss, it doubles the position size to quickly recover that loss. Unfortunately, once you hit that 50 lot limit, MegaDroid can no longer increase the trade size to speed up loss recovery.

What this means in terms of back testing, is that you will have two separate growth rates in your equity curve. If you start the back test in January of 2000 with $500 and 20% risk, by the time you get to the beginning of February in 2003 you have already hit the 50 lot position size limit. Basically this means that from 2000-2002 you would have a monthly compounded rate of return of about 18% per month, but once you hit that 50 lot limit, the monthly compounding rate sinks to 4% per month. It is quite easy to program an EA to trade around this issue, and I am hopeful the developers might make the change in future versions.

330.20% in 2009 (91 days)

On the MegaDroid sales page they claim that MegaDroid has generated a 330.20% return during the first 91 days of 2009. What they don’t tell you however, is what kind of risk and other settings you need to use to achieve that return. So, I left the settings on all of the defaults (with GMT Offset at 2 for back testing), and then ran a back test using risk levels between 5 -50%. I ran the test using an FXDD Standard Demo Account from 01.04.2009 – 03.27.2009. All of the results are reported in the table below. It appears that you would need to risk somewhere between 30-35% on each trade in order to achieve the results claimed on the sales page. The Risk vs. Drawdown is about 1-to-1 here so that may or may not be a bad trade-off depending on your risk tolerance (Return vs. Drawdown anywhere from 5:1 to 10:1);

January 1st 2000 – March 27th 2009

My next set of tests was to run MegaDroid continuously starting on January 1st of 2000 all the way through the end of last week. Again, starting with only $500 and using all of defaults, GMT Offset = 2, with risk settings at 5,10, and 20% I was able to get a picture of what MegaDroid is theoretically capable of. Using 20% risk MegaDroid would theoretically have turned $500 into $3.29 million if you traded it continously starting from Jan 1st 2000.

Here are the Strategy Tester Detailed Statements (90% Modelling Quality):

1. Forex MegaDroid – $500 Starting Balance – 5% Risk Level
2. Forex MegaDroid – $500 Starting Balance – 10% Risk Level
3. Forex MegaDroid – $500 Starting Balance – 20% Risk Level

Just for the sake of comparative visualization, here is a quick Excel chart comparing the equity curves for these 3 back test sessions:

Forex MegaDroid Back Test Equity Curves

Trade Frequency

I am sure the MegaDroid help desk has already had 5,000 emails asking why no trades have been made yet. But, the back testing reveals that Forex MegaDroid just doesn’t trade that much in comparison to other systems. Just a quick look at the Strategy Tester statements above shows that MegaDroid may only take a couple of trades per week. Some months it may make 30 trades, and some months it may only make 10 or 15 trades. The real power in this system is not how much it trades, but the consistency with which is wins trades. My back tests had a slightly lower Win % than the sales page, but testing from 2000-2009 and getting over 90% wins with a favorable profit factor is a pretty big accomplishment.

Conclusion

I still think that Forex MegaDroid may be worth a try as long as you keep in mind that you very well might want to ask for your money back if it doesn’t generate at least a 10% return before the money-back guarantee expires. I know many of my readers pretty much hate or won’t go near any Clickbank products because of their well deserved bad reputation, but if you can look past all of the over hyped marketing crap, there just might be something underneath the hood with MegaDroid.

Only forward testing will give us the truth about MegaDroid’s claims, but at this point, I can only rely on the back testing and on forward demo testing. If it survives the forward demo testing, then I will likely start testing on a live money account. Time will tell.

All the best!

-Ben aka FX Robot Man